Study that shows "quiet revival" among youth in the UK retracted; no evidence it is happening in Canada

There’s been lots of media attention recently about the idea of youth religious revival — that young people, especially those from Gen Z, are flocking to church. But is it true? 

A survey in the UK a year ago suggested it was. But then it was retracted when it was found to be untrustworthy and unreliable, due to poor polling methods. This was no surprise to many, who noted that anyone who visited a church on a Sunday morning could see for themselves the lack of youth in the pews. 

A recent study in Canada confirmed there is no evidence of youth revival here. There are anecdotal stories about some churches seeing an influx of youth, but there is no firm evidence to suggest a national youth revival in this country, either. 

To learn more about this situation, I contacted scholars who study religion for their thoughts. Read about it in my latest Free Press column. 

To read the full responses from the scholars, click here. (I never have enough room in a column to include everything they share with me!)

Photo above from the Daily Declaration, Australia's largest Christian news site.

Scholars of religion weigh in about whether there is youth revival in Canada

One way I try to stay on top of things related to religion in Canada is by reaching out to scholars who study religion in this country—my scholarly "hive mind,” as I call them. Space in the newspaper doesn’t permit me to use everything they say in response to my questions, such as for my recent column about the lack of evidence for a youth revival in Canada. Below find their full responses to the question of whether or not there is a religious revival in Canada among youth, in response to a recent study that was unable to find evidence for it. 

Sam Reimer, Professor of Sociology, Crandall University 

I thought it (the Canadian study) was a pretty balanced report.  I think I have heard enough anecdotal evidence from a wide variety of religious leaders to conclude that there are pockets across Canada where young people are engaging in Christianity in greater numbers than in the recent past. 

I am not yet convinced that we are seeing revival or that Gen Z is more religiously committed than older generations. There is some polling evidence of an upsurge in religious participation of young men particularly, but I would like to see more consistent evidence over a longer period of time to be convinced. 

Rick Hiemstra, director of the Centre for Research on Church and Faith, Evangelical Fellowship of Canada 

As we all try to figure out what may be going on, I think it's important to point out that different people in this conversation are working with different kinds of evidence. Sociologists are mainly looking to either peer-reviewed studies or polls from reputable polling companies. Church leaders, however, can directly observe what they see happening in their ministries. 

Scholarly caution is commendable, however, there will necessarily be a gap between what is happening now and what scholarship may confirm in the future. We won’t have the studies that could confirm or refute the purported Gen-Z revival unless people actually do these studies, and this will depend on such studies being funded. 

Because most sociological research in Canada is funded by the federal government, funding in the near term doesn’t seem that likely. I only saw significant government funding for research on evangelicals flow when there were competitive parties vying for government with prominent evangelical leadership. 

Moreover, Gen-Z is a population that is difficult to access because they are minors, and because those in churches tend to be suspicious of the academy’s motives. This makes it more unlikely that these data will be produced by the academy. 

There are ways that I would suggests data could be gathered. There are major evangelical youth conferences that happen across the country. These include pan-denominational conferences such as Change Conference, Ambassadors For Christ’s Teen’s Conference, Today’s Teens Conference, and One Con. Denominations also hold large denominational youth events. 

In my conversations with event organizers, I have heard that these events have had the largest numbers in years and some of them have had to move to larger venues to accommodate the events. These organizers have statistics of their event sizes over years. I’m sure that many of them would give you those numbers if asked. 

I had a conversation with a prominent youth ministry leader recently about the scholarly skepticism about what is happening, and he said, “We know what’s happening. If you can’t grow your youth ministry right now, you’re doing something wrong.” There is bemusement about the scholarly skepticism. 

Who is best positioned to actually know? Who actually has data, or is likely to have data? Right now, it’s the people in churches and youth ministries. I’ve seen many articles citing and commenting on scholarly studies or polls. I’ve seen few where reporters or scholars actually talked to people doing youth ministry. It’s not all anecdotal evidence. There are ministry structures that collect data. Many of these datasets are either public, or ministries would be happy to provide if asked. 

It just seems that we’re having this conversation about youth ministry over here, and not involving those people over there that we’re actually talking about. Why? 

Paul Bramadat, Religion, Culture and Society Program/Centre for Studies in Religion and Society, University of Victoria 

The Canadian study reports because that 59% of 18-34 year-olds say yes to "Do you believe that God or a higher power exists?" that therefore "young Canadians’ relationship with faith falls largely in line with that of older generations." 

It seems to me that the word "or" is, or may be doing a lot of work in this question. With a follow-up series of questions, and ideally with some interviews and observations we might learn what this cohort means by "higher power" - but it's a pretty accommodating term, and I wonder if the writers are reading it in the most optimistic way. 

It seems to me that there have been so many shifts in the meanings we might attribute to "relationship with faith" not to mention "God or a higher power" over the last many decades that it doesn't make a lot of sense to conclude that a fairly robust number - 59% - of yes responses means that these younger adults' religious'/spiritual lives would be legible to "older generations". 

That's not to say we don't need to pay attention to the anecdotes we hear from time to time about a "revival" among Canadian young people that might slow/stop/reverse the slide many people have been tracing, esp. in established Christian denominations — but many of us are old enough to remember how often people (esp. Reg Bibby) have claimed/hoped this in the last few decades. 

Joel Thiessen, Professor of Sociology and Director, Flourishing Congregations Institute, Ambrose University 

I have lots of thoughts on this Canadian report, and on the wider array of reports and discussions regarding the reported revival among young people.   

Overall, I think it offers a measured interpretation. If anything, I would have been a bit stronger and more categorical in stating that the evidence in this report does not support revival narratives. I had an excellent conversation with the author. I think she would agree they could have been even stronger on this account. 

I’m leery of putting much stock in "anecdotes" and "perceptions" of religious revival, often by well intentioned church leaders that are highly influential with other church leaders (several that are cited in this Canadian report). My caution is that while individual churches or youth conferences might experience growth – which I have no reason to doubt – this may or may not be the same as growth across an entire country, which is the frame of reference here. Source of growth also matters too (e.g., circulation of the saints vs new conversion-based growth), which we seem to know little about in these claims of religious revival. 

A popular refrain appears that I hear from church leaders: "If crises in meaning, mental health, and longing for community lead young people to explore faith and attend church, Canadian youth would seem to be likely candidates for a faith journey" (p.10). Piles of sociological data show that in people's minds, religion is A source rather than THE source to resolve these experienced challenges. 

Related, unless people are socialized into a religious tradition - which is less common today than in previous generations - it is rare (not impossible) that they will suddenly turn to a religious group to resolve life's challenging experiences. 

Rarely am I seeing anyone define revival. When I think about revival, I’m thinking about a reversal of trends (i.e., figures increased), measured in a multitude of ways (e.g., religious identification, religious beliefs such as belief in God or the afterlife or the importance of one's religion to their daily life, and a range of practices such as religious service attendance, reading religious texts, etc.) over a longer period of time (maybe 10+ years?). 

Thus far, I’m unconvinced by anecdotes or evidence that a revival is in play, in part because we don’t have longitudinal data to support a sustained reversal. But scholars and church leaders alike must remain open to the possibility of revival if, in fact, the data support that over a longer period of time. 

IF a revival is underway, there is a lot of anecdotal stories and speculation among church leaders and some media outlets as to why – immigration; polarization and doubling down in conservative settings; birth rates; quest for meaning and purpose amidst anxiety, depression, and the absence of certainty/anchors in late modern society; religious influencers. But until we speak to those who are returning and/or finding Christian faith anew, these are all just speculations. This would be a great opportunity to do good scholarly work into why a revival is occurring, if it really is occurring. 

In concert with what others are saying, it is important that we pay attention where there are (reported) ‘signs of life.’ It’s possible that pockets of religious vitality exist against the backdrop of broad religious decline and/or, at least, in the absence of religious revival. And we need (and have) good scholarship to explain how and why those pockets of vitality exist without conflating these pockets for widespread revival. 

In many ways this is the central premise of our work at the Flourishing Congregations Institute – we explore where there are signs of congregational life amidst a broadly secular and ‘deficit based’ context that remains the backdrop in much of Canada.    

News of retracting the ‘Quiet Revival’ report reminds us of why many scholars were reticent to quickly accept a set of interpretations that were so wildly different from prevailing data and interpretations to that point. It’s shortsighted to make grand declarations for or against mass religious shifts without longitudinal data. 

Even still, with the retraction, the re-framing provided remains a (wishful) revival narrative. As Reg Bibby often says, ‘we need to keep the tape rolling’ … though my hunch from the data to this point remains that we are not witnessing a revival, at least thus far. 

Rachel Brown, Director of the Religion, Culture and Society Program, University of Victoria 

From what has been said, there is not much new to add in terms of the actual studies and their validity. 

I did want to say that I have received some very interesting responses to the idea of a religious revival from my undergraduate students out here in Victoria. Our students are highly non-religious, and yet when I spoke to them about this idea and the studies that are coming out (no matter their issues), the students enthusiastically stated that they feel like there is in fact a revival happening among their Gen Z peers. 

This lands with them in terms of what they are witnessing within their social circles. Now this is just more anecdotal data, but I am struck by how much this resonated with my students, especially out here in the None Zone. 

I hope some folks do some research on this in the coming years to see if these anecdotes turn into anything of real note, or not, which is also good data. 

Sarah Kathleen Johnson, St. Paul’s University 

I agree with the others that the data does not support a large-scale Gen Z “revival,” and that “revival” is largely a matter of interpretation (and perhaps wishful thinking) among church leaders. 

I am a co-PI on the Youth People and Christian Worship (YPCW) study that aims to shape different conversations about young people and Christian worship. This research is invested in challenging two of the common models that underlie the “revival” discussion: deficit models that focus on the absence of young people from worshiping communities, and transactional models that focus on asking young people what they want in order to give them what they want to get them to attend worship services more often. 

In contrast, the YPCW study is focused on listening to young people who are already actively religious. It is anchored in the conviction that young worshipers have experiences and insights that can enrich the theology and practice of all participants in Christian worship. In other words, in contrast to the revival question, “Are more young people going to worship?” or the transactional question, "What can we do to get more young people to go to worship?" we ask “What can we learn about worship from young people?” 

YPCW is a binational, mixed-methods, ecumenical study. The qualitative research engaged young people aged 13 to 29 at nine sites across Canada and the United States in Roman Catholic, Mainline Protestant, and Evangelical Protestant traditions of worship. The quantitative component is a nationwide survey in the United States conducted in collaboration with Springtide Research Institute. All data has been through an initial round of coding, although we remain in the early stages of analysis. The primary focus is liturgy, but there are points of connection to other themes. 

The website can be found here: https://www.samford.edu/worship-arts/young-people-and-christian-worship   

David Seljak, St. Jerome’s University 

Rick made the following observation: “It just seems that we’re having this conversation about youth ministry over here, and not involving those people over there that we’re actually talking about. Why?” 

In fact, this conversation among sociologists of religion, is a response to news reports that exclusively rely on the reports from “those people over there that we’re actually talking about.” Relying on reports from participants is necessary but not sufficient. For example, when you ask victims of crime (or others Americans) if crime in the U.S. is going up, most say yes, even though statistically we know it is going down. So, yes, do include the voices of pastors, church leaders, and young people, but as Joel (and others) argue, that is step one. 

Like Paul, this exchange reminded me of Reginald Bibby’s analysis of the rapid church growth of urban evangelical congregations in the 1980s. The participants (pastors, church leaders, and church goers) all hailed it as a revival. Reg Bibby and Merlin Brinkerhoff showed that these churches were mostly attracting other conservative evangelicals, labelling it the “circulation of the saints.” I imagine that if we polled the growing number of young people involved in youth programs we would find the same thing. 

I would not want to dismiss this phenomenon. We should study why there is growth and a new vitality in the programs Rick highlighted. But is it evidence of a “revival”? 

In the 1990s, Bibby and Brinkerhoff softened (but did not reject) the “circulation of the saints” thesis. By 2002, Bibby even wrote about a religious renaissance in Canada (Restless Gods: The Renaissance of Religion in Canada.). Other scholars of religion were skeptical. 

Subsequently, the Canadian Census—along with a variety of other polling instruments discussed in those humdrum, behind-the-times, peer-reviewed journals–showed that Bibby was engaging in wishful thinking. The number of Canadians identifying as religious continued to decline. Bibby himself said that his thesis of a religious renaissance “might have been to exaggerate developments a bit.” 

Scholars can be forgiven for stating that, while there are reports of a religious revival among young people and they should be examined seriously, they do not see sufficient evidence for it. No one has said categorically that it is not happening—just that there is not sufficient evidence for it and loads of evidence pointing in the other direction. It seems to me that the burden of proof is on those who are arguing for a revival to make their case. And as far as I am concerned, the case has not been made. 

Also check out: Tales of Great Revival: If only it was clear they were true, by Stuart Macdonald, retired professor of church history at Knox College. An excerpt: 

When it comes to a broader “revival,” I wish this was true. I even hope it’s true. To be clear — I would love to see the Church of England growing, Pentecostal communities growing, the Church of Scotland growing, as well as denominations in Canada growing, including Alliance churches, Lutheran churches, the United Church of Canada, the Anglican Church of Canada, and my own denomination, the Presbyterian Church in Canada. I would love to see the entire church growing. I’m open to evidence that Christian traditions England or the United States are growing. I’d be happy to see clear evidence in Canada that any of our Christian traditions is growing. 

At the moment having carefully read the studies that have made the headlines, I remain unconvinced. There does not seem to be clear evidence to support the narratives of a revival, or even an end to religious decline.

Naked Pastor reaches out to the disconnected through cartoons

 

Originally published in the Winnipeg Free Press in 2021. 

With a title of “The Naked Pastor,” I knew I had to find out more about David Hayward and his unique cartooning ministry. 

Hayward, 63, lives in Quispamis, New Brunswick, just outside Saint John. 

For most of his career he was a pastor, including 14 years at the Rothesay Vineyard Church in Quispamis from 1996-2010. 

In 2005 he started a blog he called The Naked Pastor. It was a way, he said, to pull back the curtain on the life of a pastor — not just the positive aspects of ministry, but also the struggles and challenges. 

“I wanted to be open and honest and vulnerable,” he said of how he came to choose the name for the blog. “I wanted to show what really goes on in the life of a pastor.” 

In the blog he talked about his doubts and questions, along with his growing conviction the church should be more welcoming of LGBTTQ+ people. 

He also shared about his newfound conviction that all of humanity “is deeply united, that there is only one reality although many different interpretations and explanations of it.” 

That realization “was a profound experience for me,” he said. It was, however, very unsettling for his church, and for the Vineyard evangelical association to which it belonged. 

After leadership in the association received notes of concern about his blog, they said in the future he should pass everything by them for review. 

“I knew my time was up,” he said, and he offered his resignation. “I felt it was in the best interest for me, and for the church, for me to go.” 

The departure was amicable, but leaving the ministry was scary. “I was freaked out,” he said. “All I had ever known was a life as a pastor.” 

He taught at a local university for a couple of years before that job ended. Faced with a need to earn income, he decided to take a leap and make The Naked Pastor his full-time occupation — writing and selling books, cartoons, art, drawings and other assorted merchandise. 

At the same time, Hayward used it to explore a new calling to create and foster an online community for those who, like him, feel disconnected from organized Christianity — people with questions, doubts, or who don’t feel they are welcome in the church. 

It’s a community “where people are free to question, doubt, and grow,” he said, not one where they need to do whatever a preacher, guru or leader says they have to do and believe. 

Unlike many churches, which “tend to be exclusive theologically,” believing “only they have the truth, that this way of believing is right, that is wrong,” he wants to be part of a group of people who are “going in the other direction.” 

Issues that are close to his heart include the accepting love and mercy of Jesus; being more inclusive and welcoming of LGBTTQ+ in the church; and encouraging women to use their full gifts in ministry — topics reflected frequently in his cartoons, art and drawings. 

These issues have become “sacred cows” for some churches, he said, adding “I guess I am iconoclastic. I like to topple them over.” 

For Hayward, it’s a matter of freedom for women and LGBTTQ+ “to be who they are, to have equal participation in the church, like everyone else.” 

He explores these themes in his cartoons, where Christians are often depicted as sheep; the LGBTTQ+ sheep are rainbow coloured. 

In one cartoon, a rainbow-coloured sheep is shown pulling Jesus along by the hand. “Come! I found a church that welcomes us both!” the sheep exclaims. 

Another shows Jesus with a rainbow-coloured sheep draped over his shoulders in front of a group of black and white sheep. “Whoah, whoah, whoah,” says one angry member of the black-and-white flock. “He wasn’t lost. We kicked him out.” 

In a cartoon about women in the church, several of Jesus’ female disciples are talking to a large group of male disciples. “So ladies, thanks for being the first to witness and report the resurrection,” says one man. “We’ll take it from here.” 

One wordless cartoon shows people drawing lines of exclusion while Jesus erases them, and another shows black, white and rainbow-coloured sheep putting together a heart-shaped puzzle with Jesus. 

Hayward also targets what he calls spiritual abuse, when churches use their power “to manipulate and control people,” often through fear of hell and damnation or through social exclusion and shaming. 

“Some people find themselves caught in toxic and abusive relationships with their churches and are afraid to leave for what might happen to them,” he said. 

Through his blog and art, he wants to let people who feel excluded because of their gender, sexuality or doubts and questions know “they aren’t alone.” 

This includes clergy. “I hear from a lot of clergy who are struggling, leading a lonely life,” he said.

As for where his fans live, the number one country is the U.S. — which doesn’t surprise him, considering the rightward shift of many evangelical churches in that country — followed by Canada, the U.K. and Australia. 

The number one city for his fan base is Sao Paulo, Brazil, also not surprising, he said, since there is a “resurgence of conservative Christianity there, like in the U.S.” 

As for those who think he might hate the church, he said that’s not true. 

“I care about the church. I know how amazing and dynamic it can be when it’s healthy,” he said. “I just want it to do better.”

Leaders of faith-based NGOs respond to changes to Canadian foreign aid that link aid and trade

 

There’s a major change taking place in the way Canada provides foreign aid — and faith-based relief and development agencies are responding to it. 

In the past, decisions about aid were based on the needs of the world’s poorest citizens. But now the federal government is linking aid with trade in order to benefit Canadian businesses. 

Considering the state of the world today, and the need to ensure Canada’s economic security apart from the U.S., some will see this as a pragmatic shift. But what about faith-based aid groups? Their scriptures and traditions command them to share with others without regard for any kind of return. How are they responding to this change of direction? I asked a few of them.

Read my column about this change in the Free Press.

Photo above: Canadian Foodgrains Bank aid in the Middle East.

 

United Church moderator shares her vision for a smaller denomination: Being small doesn’t mean being insignificant

“We May Not Be Big, But We’re Small.” 

That was the motto of The Vinyl Cafe, a fictional record store owned by Dave, a character featured in the stories of the late Canadian author and CBC radio host Stuart McLean. 

It could also be the motto for the United Church of Canada, according to moderator Kimberly Heath. 

I spoke with Heath last September, after she was elected to that position. Looking ahead to her new role, she noted that United Church members still liked to think of their church as big — even though that was no longer the case. 

But being smaller doesn’t mean being insignificant, she said. 

“There are plenty of examples in the Bible of God using things that were small,” she said. “We shouldn’t bemoan we are not the church we were in the 1960s. Yes, we are small now. But maybe that is what we are called to be at this time.” 

Read my column about Heath and her vision for the United Church of Canada in the Free Press.

Winnipeg Archbishop urges Catholics to learn about Indigenous spirituality

Roman Catholics will benefit by taking time to learn more about Indigenous spirituality, the head of the Archdiocese of Winnipeg says. 

“It can help us deepen our own faith,” said Archbishop Murray Chatlain. “It can help us ask better questions about what we believe.” 

Chatlain was responding to news that the Portage la Prairie School Division upheld a decision to reject a Roman Catholic family’s request for a religious exemption from activities related to Indigenous spirituality. Portage la Prairie is part of the Archdiocese of Winnipeg. 

Being open to Indigenous spirituality is a good thing for Roman Catholics, Chatlain said. “There is a gift there for us. Indigenous people can contribute to our understanding of God.” 

Read my article in the Free Press.

A little bit of religious knowledge might have gone a long way before the Trump administration attacked Iran

Madeline Albright was the first woman to be Secretary of State in the U.S., holding that position from 1997 to 2001 under president Bill Clinton. 

One thing she learned during her time as America’s top diplomat was the important role that religion played when making decisions about foreign policy. 

“Religion has to be considered as we look at various conflicts,” she said. “Our diplomats have to understand the religious basis of these conflicts. In fact, they have to have training in religion. I would also make a point of the secretary of state having more religious advisers.” 

Why do I bring up Albright now? Because the Trump administration, which is now at war against Iran, could have benefitted from her insight before launching its attack three weeks ago. 

Knowing more about the religious make-up of Iran, with its Shia Islam belief in the importance of martyrdom, along with its predictions about the chaos and conflict leading to the end of the world, might have helped them anticipate the regime’s fierce resistance during this conflict.

Read about this in my latest Free Press column.

Photo above: Iranians gather after former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in Israeli and U.S. strikes. From India Today.